At the annual Trans-Pacific Dialogue held by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies in Washington, D.C. last December 2022, a special fireside chat was held featuring former U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Dr. John Hamre, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The session provided an in-depth discussion on major geopolitical issues in Northeast Asia, including U.S.-China relations following President Xi Jinping’s third term, the implications of the war in Ukraine, the potential for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the North Korean nuclear threat, and the future of U.S. extended deterrence in the region.
1. Security Challenges and the Future of U.S. Alliances in East Asia
Contingencies involving Taiwan, the South China Sea, and North Korea are of paramount importance due to their potential to disrupt regional and global stability. Taiwan represents a critical flashpoint in US-China relations, with implications for trade, global supply chains, security alliances, and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. The situation in the South China Sea is urgent, with near-constant PRC pressure on the Philippines in support of illegitimate maritime claims. Similarly, North Korea's unrelenting nuclear ambitions and unpredictable behavior pose significant threats to peace on the Korean Peninsula and beyond. Deterring aggression will require careful strategic planning, robust deterrence, and cooperation between the U.S., Korea, and Japan, as well as other partners.
Gary SAMORE is the Director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Professor of the Practice of Politics in the Department of Politics at Brandeis University. He is also a senior fellow with the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Samore previously served as President Obama’s White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction. He was a National Science Foundation Fellow at Harvard University, where he received his MA and Ph.D. in government in 1984.